Wisconsin travels to Penn State for a Saturday afternoon Big Ten battle. The top sportsbooks are way off with their spread. For match-up related reasons, that I support with video footage, I’ll be going against them. Here’s why.

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Wisconsin Badgers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions

Saturday, January 30, 2021 – 3:00 P.M. ET at Bryce Jordan Center in University Park

Wisconsin’s Defensive Improvement

If this match-up had taken place earlier in the season, then I would expect a strong performance from Penn State’s offense. The Nittany Lions like to play with a small lineup. They rank 286th nationally in average height.

Small-ball had given Wisconsin’s defense a lot of problems. Its 70-64 loss to Maryland in December is proof of these former problems. But those initial issues allowed the Badgers to make adjustments in order to fix them with smaller lineups.

The results speak for themselves: they played a Northwestern squad that likes to play small with four guys who are 6-7 or shorter. The Badgers beat Northwestern 68-52. Most recently, the Badgers avenged their earlier loss to Maryland by holding the Terps to 20 first-half points.

It is true that Wisconsin lost to Ohio State before. But a big part of Wisconsin’s defensive struggles in that game was the early foul trouble of Tyler Wahl, which limited his minutes and limited his aggressiveness when he returned onto the court.

Reasons For Wisconsin’s Defensive Improvement

This brings me to the first reason for the Badgers’ defensive improvement against smaller lineups: Tyler Wahl. Before January, Wahl had played 30 minutes in zero games. Since January, Wahl has played 30 or more minutes in four of Wisconsin’s six games. In the two games where Wahl did not play at least 30 minutes, Wisconsin lost while giving up over 70 points.

Wahl is reputedly a strong defender who is known for his toughness and his versatility. His versatility makes him especially suited to help limit opposing smaller lineups. Wahl’s versatility feeds into an adjustment that the Badgers have made in their ball-screen defense. Their ball-screen defense represents Wisconsin’s second reason for its improvement on defense.

The Badgers will switch on ball-screens, they'll avoid dropping too deeply in their ball-screen coverage, and sometimes execute a hard hedge; where the hedger hopefully bumps the opposing defender in order to send him backwards.

Video Proof

Let me show you what I’m saying, and why the information about Wisconsin’s ball-screen defense is important.

Look at 1:58 in the following video:

Penn State executes a dribble hand-off in order to isolate Izaiah Brockington. Because Ohio State’s center does not step up, he is stuck on an island against the vastly more mobile Brockington. In order to help the Buckeye center, the other Ohio State defenders have to collapse inside.

Brockington is then able to pass the ball outside because the Buckeye defense is ready to enter scramble mode, where they have to account for multiple Penn State players who are standing by themselves behind the arc.

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When Wisconsin played Maryland in the rematch, Terrapin players tried over and over again to execute ball-screen actions; in order to thrive in the paint as they did in the first meeting. However, the Badgers were prepared.

Look at 2:25 and you'll see why:

The Badger big man has stepped up in order to suffocate the Terrapin ball-handler’s driving room. You see the same thing at 3:12. Maryland’s point total was low because the Badgers were doing those things on defense.

When Wisconsin faces Penn State, the Nittany Lions will execute ball-screens and dribble handoffs in order to isolate their players. Penn State ranks 13th in the Big Ten in assists per field goals made, and that's because the Nittany Lions' players rely heavily on their ability to score in isolation.

But Wisconsin’s improved paint defense — its help, its gap control, its steady ball-screen coverage — will take away what the Nittany Lions want to do most offensively.

Wisconsin Offense vs. Penn State Defense

Against Penn State's 12th-ranked defense among Big Ten schools, as measured by efficiency, the Badgers would have the chance to be another school that puts up at least 80 points against Penn State if they didn’t play at such a slow tempo.

The Nittany Lions are particularly weak in the interior where they rank 13th in the Big Ten in both opposing two-point percentage and block rate. Given their smallness, it’s easy to expect them to lack adequate rim protection. But they even lack faith in their well-sized starting center, John Harrar, to guard opposing bigs in isolation.

Video footage unveils Penn State’s proclivity to double the post, dig, collapse inside, and otherwise gamble in order to deter opposing bigs. This proclivity plays perfectly into the hands of a Badger offense that will be ultra-focused on playing inside-out today after attempting an obscenely high number of three-pointers during their last game.

Micah Potter is Wisconsin’s top post player and one of the Big Ten’s more efficient ones based on a two-point percentage. Wisconsin will feed him inside. Potter’s assist rate is over twice as high as it was last year because he’s comfortable finding teammates who become open when the defense devotes excessive attention to him.

With four different players who average at least 38 percent from deep, Wisconsin has the personnel to exploit Penn State with its inside-out game. Potter is one of those four guys. He’s particularly tough to guard because he is a pick-and-pop candidate who can post-up, but also shoot a three.

D’Mitrik Trice, Wisconsin’s top playmaker who can work his way inside and create his own shot, draws the defense’s attention and then finds an open Potter at 4:14 in the following video:

On offense, the Badgers will help establish the slow tempo that they desire and that they will employ in order to make the Nittany Lions, who want to play fast, more uncomfortable.

Penn State loves to scrap and otherwise cause turnovers in order to generate their desired hectic pace. But the Badgers are extremely hard to turn over — by turnover rate, they are the second-hardest team in the nation to turn over.

The Verdict

With more minutes from Wahl and efficient switching, Wisconsin will limit Penn State’s endeavor to attack Wisconsin inside via isolation plays. This limitation is especially important because Penn State will be confined to scoring in the half-court as a consequence of its inability to turn the Badgers over.

The smaller Nittany Lion lineup will also hurt the team defensively as its need to devote excessive attention inside will facilitate Wisconsin’s inside-out game on offense. For the above reasons, take the Badgers with your College Basketball picks.

Best Bet: Badgers -4 at -110 with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.

Two teams that are mired in the lower half of the Big Ten standings look to make a move toward a higher tier when Maryland travels to Penn State for a Friday night game. The Terrapins are coming off an upset of No. 24 Purdue, winning 61-60 in College Park on Tuesday. The win ended a string of two losses in three games and improved Maryland to 10-8, 4-7 in the Big Ten, good for a tie for ninth in basketball’s toughest conference. Let’s see their NCAAB odds.

Maryland Terrapins vs. Penn State Nittany Lions

Thursday, February 5, 2021 – 7:00 PM ET at the Bryce Jordan Center

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Penn State lost by 16 at Wisconsin on Tuesday, the second loss in three outings for the Nittany Lions. Penn State also had a five-game losing streak earlier in the year with a two and a half week COVID shutdown sandwiched in the middle. The Nittany Lions sit at 6-8 on the year, 3-7 in the Big Ten, a half game behind Maryland in 11th place.

The game starts a string of three straight winnable outings for the Nits. Following Maryland, they play Michigan State and Nebraska. So a chance to get back to .500 by Valentine’s Day is on the table.

Building on Big Game Momentum

Maryland’s win over Purdue was its fourth over a ranked team this season.

“I think guys are gaining confidence because of it,” coach Mark Turgeon said of the upsets, “and I think they’re enjoying it a little bit more because they’re having fun playing.”

Like Penn State’s, the Maryland schedule is making a turn toward the favorable with this game. Maryland has played eight ranked teams in its last 10 games, but No. 7 Ohio State is the only ranked foe remaining on the regular season schedule.

The Big Ten is a big man league this year, as just about every team Maryland plays has had a significant size advantage. The Terps don’t have anyone over 6-foot-9 who plays significant minutes in the rotation and frequently goes with five perimeter players to try to move the game outside, away from their disadvantage in the post.

This game will give the Terps the rare chance to go toe-to-toe with a conference opponent. Penn State also doesn’t have a regular taller than 6-foot-9 on the roster.

The Terps are led by 6-foot-6 wing Aaron Wiggins and 6-foot-7 Donta Scott. Wiggins is scoring 12.8 ppg with 5.4 rebounds, while Scott is at 12.7 ppg and 6.6 rebounds. Scott is also lighting it out from outside, hitting on 45.7 percent of threes to lead Maryland. Jairus Hamilton is also hitting over 40 percent on threes.

Size Advantage for Penn State

Instead of trying to figure out how to compensate for a size disadvantage, the Nittany Lions are in the unusual position of trying to take advantage of it. At 6-foot-9, 240 pounds, John Harrar will look to establish himself in the post, while also trying to guard Maryland’s wing forwards.

Harrar has flirted with double-doubles all season, averaging 8.6 ppg and 8.1 rebounds. He’s scored in double figures in his last three games, averaging 14.0 ppg, and he has three double-digit rebounding outings in his last five.

Penn State’s guards will keep Maryland from collapsing on Harrar. Myreon Jones and Izaiah Brockington, both juniors, are each in the top 12 in the Big Ten in scoring. Jones is at 15.6 ppg and has scored in double figures in all but one game. Brockington is at 14.7 ppg.

The Pick

The game could be decided at the three-point arc. With Penn State having at least some type of inside threat in Harrar, it will help keep Maryland honest on defense. In other Big Ten games, the Terps have struggled at defending the three. Maryland ranks No. 251 in the nation in opponent’s three-point percentage, at 35.5. That plays right into the hands of Penn State, who hits 35.8 percent.

The Nittany Lions have struggled to defend the two, but, without a Luka Garza or Kofi Cockburn to defend inside, Penn State should find that task significantly easier on Friday night. For your best bets, look for the Nits to pull away at home.

NCAAB Pick: Penn State -3.5 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)